Guest feature:
Ik Muo, PhD. FCIB.(muoigbo@yahoo.com) Department of Business Administration, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State. Published,(abridged) in the Guardian of 25/7/15, p54;
About 500 years ago, Machiavelli declared authoritatively that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle than to initiate a new order of things.’ (Nicholo’ Machiavelli,(1532)The Prince: A handbook of power, politics and statesmanship). As it was then, so it is now. Change; whether imposed or voluntary, is not a tea party, it is a serious business and the failure rate of change efforts averages above 70%. Those who are genuinely interested in making a success of change-and the transition, which is the core issue-, therefore make conscious efforts to create the conditions that are favourable for success or avoid those that have the capabilities to torpedo the effort. Some of these critical success factors (or hindrances in reverse) are objectives, leadership and the expectation dynamics.
It has been said that ‘the first step to getting the things you want out of life is to decide what you want’. As it is for life, so it is for the slippery process of change. The importance of change objectives is that they determine the strategies adopted as well as providing a means of assessing performance. Many change programmes actually have objectives but at times, these objectives are shortsighted or self-serving, non-inclusive, or are ‘kurukere’ and contain some hidden agenda. Consequently, they adopt strategies that may not last the distance or are out-rightly Machiavellian. These change operatives have forgotten that ‘to be prepared is half of the victory’ (Miguel de Cervantes), and that getting the objectives and strategies right is the key preparation factor.
Leadership is obviously a critical factor in the success or failure of change management. A key dimension in this leadership factor is its unity and cohesiveness and this has been highlighted by various studies and authorities. Success requires a powerful coalition (Kotter,2007); leader having the support of key executives(Huat, 2004), backing and support of key people, (Luecke, 2003),agreement among key people(Corporate Executive Board, 2009) and unity of purpose(Muo, 2015). Thus when there is leadership disharmony, the center cannot hold and if it comes early in the change process, it is a serious cause for alarm.
Another important issue in change and change management is expectation dynamics. Some change leaders deliberately (to secure short-lived support) or accidentally (due to poor change management expertise), overpromise on the dividends of the change. This is more so when they fail to reveal or deliberately hide the likely downsides of the process. The immediate outcome is a crisis of expectation which reverses the temporary support and accentuates resistance to the change or to the change agent. Even in ordinary customer relations, organizations are warned not to promise more than they can deliver or else they attract instant backlash. Indeed, it may well be better to promise less than one can deliver so as to have some room to maneuver or to create an A+ effect. We all remember how the banks threw away the chairs in their banking halls when they promised ‘5 minutes only’ at the advent of automation. We also knew the initial outcome, when they could not deliver and usually blamed technology and when customers like me would remind them that my contract was with the bank and not with technology!
Let us examine how these factors play out in the issue of local and global concern at the moment: how Mohammed Buhari and APC are delivering the much promised and expected change. From my observatory, I can say unequivocally that the APC operated as if its sole objectives was to chase Goodluck away from Aso Rock . And that was probably why they accommodated everybody and anybody, who could contribute to the agenda of consigning Goodluck patiently and probably permanently, to Otuoke. The antecedents, tendencies and even trouble-quotients of these political nomads were ignored. And now, having brought in ant-infested firewood, the lizards have come a visiting and that is where we are today. Probably, they took the advice of Obasabjo that ‘In politics(quest for power), you need the support of both saints and sinners; when you get into office, you separate saints from sinners’. Probably they took in more sinners than saints; probably, they have not even had time to separate the saints from sinners and probably, they forgot one of the paradoxes of life that ‘the things which initially make you successful are not necessarily the things that keep you successful’.
A few Months ago, the then Chairman of Labour Party, Dan Nwanyanwu declared on national TVs that his party could not align with the merger merchants because they refused to discuss what to do with the power and even how to share the dividends (you may call it the loot) of power (in the Nigerian way). I don’t know what Dan is saying now but on that issue, he was probably right-as current events have shown
Our people say that a person who swallows a needle should not celebrate until he has successfully emptied his bowels. The APCians swallowed a very long and twisted needle and engaged in premature celebration. It is now time to defecate and the needle has made that simple, natural process, messy! Even then, since they are the change-masters, they should have known that one of the key dangers in change and change management is premature celebration. The wind has blown and we have seen the anus of the foul; the wind has also shown us that Reverend Fathers wear trousers beneath their flowing white robe… And this is just the beginning!
The second issue is leadership harmony or disharmony, as the case may be. We have this elementary adage that divided we fail. As at today, APC is a metaphor for disunity and this is because of the recruitment and selection strategies they adopted. Which sane organization would go to the unemployment or unemployable market, ring the bell and ask everybody to go and collect employment letter from the personnel department? But that was exactly what APC did. And they started building from the top, forgetting that the only structure that starts from the top is the grave and we all know that the grave is the final bus-stop. They started building from the top, encouraging rebellion and treachery in PDP and promoting vices as virtues. Now what went round has come round and this is rather too early in the day. They wanted to drive Patience away but they did not have a modicum of patience to gradually build the support and structure to form a massive change movement. And because it was an urgent and emergent come-one, come all affair, they have a disunited unity. We have been told that ‘There are two ways of being united: one is by being frozen together and the other is by being melted together. (Moody’s Anecdotes, p53). APC is an amalgam of frozen elements; they are not melted together. Consequently, at the least heat, the elements go their separate ways. Melting is it but it takes time and efforts. (Just compare two lumps of meet frozen together and two pieces of candles melted together!). Because of greed, poor preparation, divergence of interests and all that, savage fighting has started among comrades, who few weeks ago, were shouting either Sai Buhari or Change! (see 2nd Chronicles,20:23 or Issiah:49:26) They are therefore singing discordant tunes, the worst thing to happen to change merchants.
We now examine the factor of crisis of expectation. It is too early in the day to bemoan our fate, regretting that we have boarded a Lagos one-chance bus or that in an effort to evade the spirit that devours just half, we have run into another that devours the whole! But, surely, there is already a serious crisis of expectations even though it is early in the day and it is a self inflicted wound! The crisis of expectations was caused by two factors: the promises made by APC and their communication strategy. The party promised to do everything and anything and nearly promised to air-condition our highways and fields. Of course, they promised to do things differently, and that change would flow from June 1(hit the ground running). So people are justified to expect these magical offerings. The party, for instance, promised to have ministers at work not later than the one week after inauguration.
The second aspect of this is the party’s communication strategy. Now, let us assume that Jonathan was performing at 50-60% range (surely, he could have done better but I don’t agree that he did NOTHING!). If the APC wanted to move the performance notch to 60-80% range, people would expect 20% improvement based on the status quo. What the APC however did was to communicate that GEJ did nothing or that his performance was even negative. They therefore created and sustained the impression that they would start from GROUND ZERO on 29/5/`5. And they still promised 80-100% on all fronts. So, rather than communication 20-30% improvement, they promised 80-100% improvement and with immediate effect! For instance, GEJ was stridently and severally criticized for not visiting BH attack sites/victims and gallivanting across the globe despite these attacks. We all remember the forge-forge tweet of GMBs visit to Chibok during the campaigns(16/2/15). Now, we all know that number of bombings and fatalities since 29/5/15. President Buhari has not visited any bombing site (though he later commissioned the VP for that purpose) and he appears to have operated from his presidential Jet and foreign countries in his first two weeks. In any case, what things have been done differently in the past 4 weeks? Have we banned veils as they did in Mali or have we rounded up beggars and foreigners as they did in Chad? These two factors escalated the crisis of expectation currently afloat in the country. It is indeed, a self inflicted wound because the ruling party created the conditions favourable for the current wild expectations from the populace.
In the face of deformed objectives, leadership disharmony and crisis of expectations, we have witnessed more of the same and an avalanche of excuses. We are still inundated by fuel queues, BH bombardments, armed robbery and kidnappings, boxing contests by legislators at Abuja and the states, outrageous allowances by ‘legislooters’ and continuous concern by politicians for their interests as against our collective interests. Indeed, Jean- Baptiste Alphonse Karr is right: Plus ca change plus cest la meme chose: (the more things change, the more they appear to stay the same).There have also been a deluge of excuses, just as the banks did when they failed initially to deliver on their ‘5 minutes’ promises. We have been told about the failure of the GEJ administration to cooperate with the ‘Change transition committee’, empty treasury, mountain debts and pressure of ‘First 100 Days Report-card’. The President himself also regretted that there is a limit to what he could do at the age of 72, wishing that he had become a president when he was Governor, probably 40 years ago. Some of these excuses were known and knowable before 29/5/16 and as such do not add value today. The age was a factor during the campaign and Buhari and APC assured us that he was as fit as a fiddle and that age had no correlation with performance. We have also been admonished to be patient since they are ‘not magicians’. We have forgotten that a Chief APCian, El-Rufai, even made some appointments before 29/5/16 and that almost all the states are now functional. Instead of hitting the ground running, they appear to have hit the ground confused and comatose! Even some of the promises are being denied or redefined. We are now told that the promised multi-thousand megawatt of electricity is just a roadmap.
The consequences of all this is that the government is in a sort of coma as its take-off has been arrested by some self inflicted wounds and political guerrilla warfare. It is not an APC affair because when tension is palpable, and the Nation stands still, then, we all suffer. We cannot say it serves them right and enjoy the discomfiture of those who wanted power as if power was an end in itself. It is in the interest of the country that things start moving and that the changes promised do flow, even if it is at realistic levels. The country surely needs some change. My worry has always been with the suitability of the vehicle and the competence, integrity, unity and motivation of the drivers. Even a simple matter of who is the leader of the party has become contentious together with other real or imagined zones of war in the APC: Between CAN, CPC, ANPP, APGA and independent groups; between Atiku and Tinubu, between Tinubu and Saraki. According to Victor Asianah, there are several plots, subplots, intrigues, squabbles and too many interests. These have led to a political mutiny as it usually happens when father of two sons (or even 3) from different mothers glaringly show love and preference for one. (Guardian, 19/7/15, p11)
We have a crisis in our hands and it may snowball beyond our imagination. The APC should put its house in order, learn how to manage apparently rebellious allies and avoid steps or statements that would escalate the situation. I hope that the hooligans who performed in the House on 25/6/15 were not supported by the party. Indeed, I expect Lai Mohammed to have distanced the party from that show of shame. Sometimes ago, the plan of the PDP as par house leadership was thwarted by some current APC operatives and that situation lasted for 4 years. That party with the tattered umbrella did not like it but they did not set the house on fire just to catch some noisome rats! The APC should negotiate what is possible and swallow the humble pie. In terms of performance expectations, the party and government should now come open, explain its situation truthfully, devoid of propaganda, and sign a fresh compact with the people. It is obvious that the electoral offerings are not realistic; not because of what the transformation merchant did or failed to do but because the party threw caution to the winds in its promises. Even for countries that transformed from madness to sanity, it was a careful, painstaking and sincere process. It is has never been with immediate effect!
Sometimes ago, those who are currently key players in APC brazenly set fire on the house of PDP and even celebrated the inferno! However, they failed to acquire fire-fighting capabilities, forgetting that whoever sets another’s house on fire will surely have fire in his house. It is just a matter of time. The other day, Prof. Utomi lamented that ‘our change’ has been hijacked. Well, as we say in our world, the Prof has spoken! But no change was hijacked because the change is yet to emerge. You cannot hijack what does not exist. Indeed, the APC being an amalgam of desperate and disparate now-now(immediate term) political investors, the alleged hijack may even be a part of the expected change! Meanwhile, there is one lady who writes on Saturday Guardian and introduces herself as a mother of two and wife of one husband. Her name is Ukinebo Dare. On 21/3/15, she wrote ‘While waiting for the change you desire, you need to build your capacity to manage it. While praying for a blessing, assess your capacity to contain it. If you do not yet have what you need in order to transform a windfall into growth, please, build it!(p40). APCians probably did not read that article then but for future aspirations, they should make it their mantra.
Meanwhile, some changes are surely taking place. These include, government without ministers, transferring BH inmates to my LGA, bailout to prodigal state governors without taking steps to curtail their criminal extravagance and even when the treasury is empty and the sudden resurgence of EFCC with its trial by media strategy. There is however one major change that even the blind will see. The three arms of Government in Nigeria today are headed by our brethren from the North. The executive, the legislature and the Judiciary are all headed by Nigerians from the north. Indeed, in the NASS, the President of the Senate, the Majority Leader, the Deputy Majority Leader and the Speaker of the House and even the Chairman of the NASS Service Commission, are all from the north. In the Judiciary, the Chief Justice and President of Court of Appeal are also from that lucky part of the country. I don’t know whether it is by design or default and my mouth is too holy to say that this is not very tidy. Anyway, Goodluck has gone but some sections of this country are still just LUCKY! It is well with Nigeria.
Meanwhile, ’every revolutionary movement ends up perpetuating the very vices it claims to eradicate’. The APC should beware, lest it concretises this caveat on the tombstone of communism.
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