NIGERIA’S 2015 ELECTION By Engr Ajulu Uzodike, OON January 22, 2015

The campaign issues for the 2015 general elections are many. They are – the Economy with sub issues like job & wealth creation (unemployment), domestic industrialization & patronage, investments (domestic & foreign), indebtedness (domestic & foreign); Security of life and property; Transparency of public actions (equated by many as corruption); Recklessness and impunity of government officials; Leader’s vision for the country’s future; and many others. Many authors have made reasonable contributions on most of the issues to enable voters make good judgement about whom to vote in the presidential election and maybe in the other elections too. However, many other articles appear to have been purposely written to mislead the voters.

I would limit my contributions on the above issues to personal experiences and reliable data, not comments, obtained from independent international sources. I would also concentrate on the two leading presidential candidates – President Jonathan of the PDP and General Buhari of the APC. Luckily for me both of them have led Nigeria once and have had to grapple with similar circumstances concerning the above issues. Their records, achievements or otherwise are verifiable.

THE ECONOMY

Under President Jonathan the confidence in the economy is growing. Nigerians abroad are increasingly investing at home or making plans to do so. Shopping malls are multiplying. Moribund businesses are coming alive again like the motor assembly plants. The rail lines are beginning to run again etc. On the downside for our country, the international market for crude oil has recently collapsed with prices less than half of what they were before. Nigeria is also finding it difficult to sell all the oil she is allowed by the OPEC quota to produce. However, the Jonathan administration appears to be taking these challenges in strides, which I believe is the best way to handle issues like this. No panic measures like drastic exchange controls or import licensing have been introduced. Internationally credible fiscal and exchange measures are being adopted while ongoing efforts to diversify the economic revenue sources outside crude oil have been increased. The Naira has devalued by about 10% while the official and parallel market rates are still close. Consequently both domestic and international confidence in the economy remain undiminished.

General Buhari inherited a badly managed economy from President Shagari whom he overthrew. However, he adopted the same economic measures as his predecessor. Indigenous manufacturing companies like mine and other genuine businesses had to endlessly besiege the Federal Secretariat Ikoyi, cap in hand, begging for import licenses. These licenses were instead given to portfolio carrying businessmen without known addresses, who then sold them to the real manufacturers and businesses for huge profits. Nigeria had a dual currency regime with a huge gap between the official rate and the de-facto rate established by the parallel market. The government sold foreign exchange to their cronies at the low official rates for the cronies to resell to actual users at the parallel market rates which were multiple times what they got them for. Those were the most frustrating and difficult days in Nigeria for genuine manufacturers and businesses except for those with tight connection with the government. The Naira which hitherto was the official West African currency was destroyed in an ill-advised currency colour change, with borders closed to prevent the smuggling in of the old colour currency into Nigeria except for the mysterious 50-odd trunk boxes that were allowed for a crony. As the economy deteriorated unconventional and ancient trade practices like trade by batter (another form of import licensing) adopted by government advanced economic collapse. This continued until SAP was introduced by the successor Government. The consequent drop of the Naira exchange rate to the de-facto rate of the parallel market was the greatest devaluation of the Naira ever in Nigeria. Confidence in the Nigerian economy had never been much lower than as at that era.

CORRUPTION

There is a raging controversy about which regime in Nigeria is or has been the most corrupt. Luckily there is an independent international body known as Transparency International which has been publishing Country Corruption Perception Indices since 1995. Nigeria joined in the publication in 1996. Anybody can get the Transparency International Corruption Perception data by simply googling it, which I did. Countries are ranked by that perception in ascending order of corruption. Since the number of participating countries varies over the years I had to make each year’s figure 100% for comparative relevance. The summary of the analysis is shown below:

Era Nigeria’s Position Leader

Before 1995 No data Military

1995 NA Military

1996-1998 98% Military

1999-2002 99% Obasanjo-1st term

2002-2006 95% Obasanjo-2nd term

2007-2010 74% Y’Ardua/Jonathan

2011-2014 79% Jonathan 1st term

The above data implies that President Obasanjo met a very corrupt Nigeria at almost 100% when he became a civilian President at his second coming as Nigeria’s leader. However, he and General Buhari along with other military rulers were responsible for bringing and keeping Nigeria in that sorry corruption status. President Obasanjo’s first term was as corrupt as the military regimes he took over from. The data however shows that President Obasanjo initiated the reduction of corruption in Nigeria in his second term. President Y’ardua’s first term which was finished by President Jonathan recorded the lowest corruption levels. President Jonathan’s first term is also lower in corruption than all previous eras except the era that he shared with President Y’Ardua. Obasanjo’s first term and the military era/s before it were therefore the most corrupt Nigeria had ever known. Credit must however be given to President Obasanjo for starting the decline of corruption in Nigeria. President Jonathan must also be credited for furthering the decline of corruption.

SECURITY

My view is that no past insecurity issue in Nigerian, with the doubtful exception of the Nigerian Civil war, has been put to a successful rest. Armed robbery, bank robbery, killing of other ethnic or religious groups mostly in northern Nigeria, Niger delta militancy, kidnapping for ransom, religious extremism rising to the Boko Haram challenge, none of these have ever been successfully tackled by our leaders. Many security agencies, drawing from limited resources, often with conflicting roles, accountable to distant central bodies, operate in Nigeria. Over time, ‘connections’ or ‘who know who’ may have overtaken merit as the principal consideration in manpower recruitment and advancement. Over centralization and political factors further affect the operational efficiency and service delivery of the security agencies. The problem is made worse by the fact that the truth over time has been sacrificed in favour of sycophancy in public affairs. Over time also, the centre which owns the agencies have abandoned many of her responsibility for equipping the security agencies to unwillingly but desperate state governments.

The Boko Haram insurgency has rudely exposed the deep rot in our security apparatus, some of which were as a result of the factors I have summarized above. That rot can be fixed, but it would take time. The question now is who is in a better position to fix the security rot? Is it General Buhari, who could be classified as a military insider that may have contributed to the sorry state of affairs? Or is it President Jonathan, who could be classified as a military outsider and who has admitted the existence of the sorry state of affairs? Your answer is as good as mine!

CONCLUSION z

This article is purposely brief. However, there is enough to appraise the two leading contestants in the 2015 presidential elections – President Jonathan and General Buhari on their records as leaders of Nigeria. President Jonathan claims to be transforming Nigeria. There is significant evidence to support that claim. General Buhari claims he wants to change Nigeria. There is also evidence that he is capable of bringing significant change. Projecting from his antecedents, President Jonathan’s transformation – opening up & liberalizing the economy, floating exchange rates, less government control & involvement, and subtle interventions; look progressive to me. Likewise projecting from his antecedents, General Buhari’s change – excessively restricting the economy, exchange controls, import licensing, more government controls, and forceful interventions; don’t look progressive to me. Or can General Buhari be ‘transformed’ to ‘change’?