A few months ago I came across the above paper written by Tariro Kamuti, a consultant with Consultancy Africa Intelligence. The notes accompanying the paper constitute a treasure trove for students, academics, economists and policymakers in government.
However the paper bemoaned what it termed “The dilemma of coal as a necessary evil on the (African) continent”. I do not share that view, hence this rejoinder.
The paper says in part: “However, coal is now a fuel that is difficult to brush aside as it contributes to 39 percent of the world’s electricity production and is expected to remain so over the next 20 years, while it is also an important component of 64 percent of world steel production. Nevertheless, coal has detrimental environmental effects, such as air pollution and acid rain, which have been felt since the peak of the Industrial Revolution. The question then arises: should Africa continue using coal for much-needed development despite its negative environmental consequences?”
The truth is that apart from the Republic of South Africa, the rest of the continent hardly applies coal to the solution of its many problems, the major one being power generation. Hence the “negative environmental consequences” are actually unknown to us. Yes, we read about them.
For Nigeria and indeed the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, there is no dilemma involved here. Africa should in the short term increase its consumption of coal perhaps a hundredfold. I challenge anyone to prove that this quantum leap (from a very low base of per capita energy consumption) cannot be accommodated by a mere 5 percent reduction in the (over)usage of coal by the advanced economies of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil and South Africa. As I have stated in a previous essay, Nigeria and other energy-poor countries mainly in Africa have no business joining in the discussion and debate over global warming. Apart from the criminal flaring of natural gas associated with oil production, Nigeria as an “industrial nation (?)” currently contributes next to nothing towards the CO2 load in the ozone layer. The kind of commitments foolishly made on our behalf at Rio, Kyoto and other fora by Prof Aina and his successors were uncalled for. Nigeria must be industrialised first, thus earning a place at the table.
One other section of the above paper states as follows: “For example, South Africa possesses 11 percent of the world’s coal reserves and contributes about 6 percent to global production. The country has economically recoverable coal reserves of between 15 and 55 billion tonnes, of which 96 percent of reserves are bituminous coal. South Africa relies on coal for 92 percent of its electricity production.”
Isn’t that great? I would like to rivet the reader’s attention specifically to the 92 percent! One should compare and contrast with the situation in Nigeria.
The paper continues: “Nigeria too has vast unexploited coal resources. Consequently, the government has placed a high priority on resuscitating the coal mining industry in order to increase the country’s power generating capacity.”
My own observation is that there is no indication that the government of Nigeria (and my own colleagues ensconced comfortably in it) have any serious plan to develop the coal industry which is vital to the great leap forward in our power industry. I now state publicly that I am very much ashamed of them. Thus the above statement that “the government has placed a high priority on resuscitating the coal mining industry” is at best a rumour which is never a basis for economic planning. Coal mining, like copper, bauxite, iron ore, etc, is big and dirty business. It is not for the faint-hearted. It cannot be profitably done on a small scale or in secret. I have followed with subdued excitement the many press releases by and on the Eta-Zuma group. I am impatiently waiting for the coal and the coal-fired power plants.
Permit me to dabble into some enlightened estimation. For every quantum of electricity generated or projected (say, 20teraWhr), it will be quite easy to deduce the standard cost of the various major inputs. On the fuel side, not only will the cost of coal be much lower, it will be sourced domestically. A lion’s share of the fuel spend will be labour, i.e., mining labour. Only a fool will not see the jobs embedded in such an enterprise. There has been some rather infrequent but politically correct talk in the media on this score by people in government. We must go beyond that, and fast too.
The coal mining members of COSATU in South Africa probably constitute the largest and most powerful bloc in that nation. Their contribution is immense. So also is their well-deserved political clout. Without the coal and the electrical power derived from it, all other industries including gold, platinum mining and agricultural processing would not have had a fighting chance.
For balance, I have to state the obvious in the case of the natural gas-fired power plants. Nigeria has abundant deposits of gas which it has unfortunately and quite inexplicably been unable to develop and harness. Development of gas fields and processing the output has always been an expensive and technically challenging activity. In this case a disproportionately large part of the cost structure is for offshore-based engineering activity and (eventually) lightly manned processing equipment, i.e., far fewer jobs. The likes of General Electric and Nuovo Pignone and others are the major beneficiaries of the requisite large capital outlay. . .
In contrast, for the design and delivery of coal-fired power plants, it is possible in the short term to develop some sizeable local capability. This should include coal handling and preparation (crushing, slurrying and pumping), boiler design, fabrication and repair (including the relevant physical metallurgy for material specification, welding & inspection), and feed pump and steam piping design & installation.
In addition, we would expect our engineers to be involved in all aspects of condenser design and fabrication, sizing and specifications for forced convection fans & motors, cooling water pumps and airflow & water mixing baffles. The highly visible retaining structures common to all big thermal power plants are essentially reinforced structural concrete which should hold no mysteries for Nigerian engineers. We have been involved in constructing some dams here.
We do not exactly lack high-end manpower. I must mention only one name here, Josephat Okoye of Water & Dam Services. After UC Berkeley, he is said to have cut his teeth over four decades ago in the jungles of Irian Jaya, Papua New Guinea during the construction of the then most prolific copper-gold mining and processing operation in the world by Freeport Inc.
I nearly collapsed when I read two years ago that a certain minister of state (Power) publicly admonished Dr Okoye and argued with him over the delivery schedule for the Mambilla Hydroelectric project. This minister’s outburst is akin to my presuming to offer an opinion to the late Albert Einstein on the finer points of the Theory of Relativity. The very ignorant are truly much braver than the rest of us. That is why we are the way we are. It is also on record that no outsiders constructed the controversial cooling tower units at Pyongbon in North Korea.
Various levels of coal pollution abatement techniques and technologies are competitively available from more mature economies worldwide. If need be, these can be grafted onto our own indigenous planning processes. While we unavoidably pollute just a little, the advanced economies will and should continue to advance the frontiers of CO2 capture and re-injection. They owe that much to the survival of the global ecosystem, having been polluting unchecked for the past 400 years!
On the other hand, in the next two decades, I do not expect my professional colleagues (and our children) to make much of a dent in the business of ultra high speed and high temperature gas turbines, which is actually next to rocket science for which we have to date shown no interest. In this business, coal-fired power plants remain the low hanging fruits which we must pluck first.
Just about anybody in government who can read glibly talks about alternative energy sources, solar, wind and often biomass. Others will add wave and geo-thermal. My advice at this stage of our (under)development is to stay close to these scientific developments so as to be able to jump on board in the future when it will finally make sense for us to do so. Even now, there are a few niche applications where alternative energy is the only available option. Anyone who disagrees with this should kindly show us where in the world a steel rolling mill and/or an aluminium smelting plant is run on the so-called renewable energy that is not hydro. I rest my case.
With the clueless gerontocrats who studied History, Classics and Greek philosophy still hanging around offering technical advice to this and previous governments, it is clear that my generation of technocrats (can I really claim that?), who are not getting any younger, may die out without the opportunity to make any meaningful contribution to the development of this nation. It is so sad sounding as if one is looking for a job. Perish the thought! For our own sanity, there is so much many of us can do for free for this our Nigeria. Time is running out. There is general agreement that if we take care of electrical power a whole lot of things will fall into place.
One parting shot. I have just learnt from one of the news networks that the current power supply woes of South Africa’s ESKOM are being eased by import of 200mW from Namibia of all places. Will Nigeria be able to achieve self-sufficiency and comfortably export power to our neighbours in my lifetime? I wonder.
For balance, I have to state the obvious in the case of the natural gas-fired power plants. Nigeria has abundant deposits of gas which it has unfortunately and quite inexplicably been unable to develop and harness. Development of gas fields and processing the output has always been an expensive and technically challenging activity. In this case a disproportionately large part of the cost structure is for offshore-based engineering activity and (eventually) lightly manned processing equipment, i.e., far fewer jobs. The likes of General Electric and Nuovo Pignone and others are the major beneficiaries of the requisite large capital outlay. . .
In contrast, for the design and delivery of coal-fired power plants, it is possible in the short term to develop some sizeable local capability. This should include coal handling and preparation (crushing, slurrying and pumping), boiler design, fabrication and repair (including the relevant physical metallurgy for material specification, welding & inspection), and feed pump and steam piping design & installation.
In addition, we would expect our engineers to be involved in all aspects of condenser design and fabrication, sizing and specifications for forced convection fans & motors, cooling water pumps and airflow & water mixing baffles. The highly visible retaining structures common to all big thermal power plants are essentially reinforced structural concrete which should hold no mysteries for Nigerian engineers. We have been involved in constructing some dams here.
We do not exactly lack high-end manpower. I must mention only one name here, Josephat Okoye of Water & Dam Services. After UC Berkeley, he is said to have cut his teeth over four decades ago in the jungles of Irian Jaya, Papua New Guinea during the construction of the then most prolific copper-gold mining and processing operation in the world by Freeport Inc.
I nearly collapsed when I read two years ago that a certain minister of state (Power) publicly admonished Dr Okoye and argued with him over the delivery schedule for the Mambilla Hydroelectric project. This minister’s outburst is akin to my presuming to offer an opinion to the late Albert Einstein on the finer points of the Theory of Relativity. The very ignorant are truly much braver than the rest of us. That is why we are the way we are. It is also on record that no outsiders constructed the controversial cooling tower units at Pyongbon in North Korea.
Various levels of coal pollution abatement techniques and technologies are competitively available from more mature economies worldwide. If need be, these can be grafted onto our own indigenous planning processes. While we unavoidably pollute just a little, the advanced economies will and should continue to advance the frontiers of CO2 capture and re-injection. They owe that much to the survival of the global ecosystem, having been polluting unchecked for the past 400 years!
On the other hand, in the next two decades, I do not expect my professional colleagues (and our children) to make much of a dent in the business of ultra high speed and high temperature gas turbines, which is actually next to rocket science for which we have to date shown no interest. In this business, coal-fired power plants remain the low hanging fruits which we must pluck first.
Just about anybody in government who can read glibly talks about alternative energy sources, solar, wind and often biomass. Others will add wave and geo-thermal. My advice at this stage of our (under)development is to stay close to these scientific developments so as to be able to jump on board in the future when it will finally make sense for us to do so. Even now, there are a few niche applications where alternative energy is the only available option. Anyone who disagrees with this should kindly show us where in the world a steel rolling mill and/or an aluminium smelting plant is run on the so-called renewable energy that is not hydro. I rest my case.
With the clueless gerontocrats who studied History, Classics and Greek philosophy still hanging around offering technical advice to this and previous governments, it is clear that my generation of technocrats (can I really claim that?), who are not getting any younger, may die out without the opportunity to make any meaningful contribution to the development of this nation. It is so sad sounding as if one is looking for a job. Perish the thought! For our own sanity, there is so much many of us can do for free for this our Nigeria. Time is running out. There is general agreement that if we take care of electrical power a whole lot of things will fall into place.
One parting shot. I have just learnt from one of the news networks that the current power supply woes of South Africa’s ESKOM are being eased by import of 200mW from Namibia of all places. Will Nigeria be able to achieve self-sufficiency and comfortably export power to our neighbours in my lifetime? I wonder.
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